Quarter-Back, Half-Back, Full-Back?

The RAND Corp. has released a study today that predicts that half of New Orleans approximately 484,000 residents will return by 2008.

The citywide estimates stand in contrast to much more optimistic projections by Nagin, who has repeatedly said New Orleans will hit the 300,000 mark by the end of this year. Nagin said he stands by his projections.

I wonder where Mayor "Willie Wonka" is getting his numbers from since the study quoted above is from a think tank that his own commission hired. One also has to question the usefullness of any of these studies since no one really knows what will happen short-term, much less long-term.

One prediction, though, is well founded in common-sense that is so uncommon in academe.

By contrast, the report's authors believe population in unflooded areas will reach 110 percent of pre-Katrina density by 2008, while areas that had minor flooding of less than 2 feet will reach their full pre-Katrina population levels. However, those two categories comprise less than a third of the city.

The study also points out a couple of impediments to recovery:

But the biggest obstacle to repopulation by far, the study says, is the lack of housing. The report says the city would grow much more quickly if City Hall were able to streamline its permitting process, something city officials say already has been done.

This is where I wonder where RAND is getting its information from. I've posted earlier that Safety & Permits has streamlined it permit process. In many cases, one merely has to submitt an application. The real impediment to recovery is our state and federal government.

So to use a football analogy, the Saints offense is facing an eight-man "D" line and yet insist on running up the middle or or when they do attemp a pass, ends up being an "Aaron Brooks" forward pass. Saints fans will know what I'm talking about.

The only difference is that the Saints will be getting rid of Aaron Brooks and replacing him with Drew Brees. We're stuck with "Drew a" Blanco for the next two years.